then　they　will　establish　to　their　own　satisfaction　that　the　other
  fellow　was　guilty　of　‘‘causing　the　war。''　Statesmen；　dead　and
  not　yet　dead；　in　all　countries　will　take　to　their　typewriters　and
  they　will　explain　how　they　tried　to　avert　hostilities　and　how
  their　wicked　opponents　forced　them　into　it。
  The　historian；　a　hundred　years　hence；　will　not　bother　about
  these　apologies　and　vindications。　He　will　understand　the　real
  nature　of　the　underlying　causes　and　he　will　know　that　personal
  ambitions　and　personal　wickedness　and　personal　greed　had　very
  little　to　do　with　the　final　outburst。　The　original　mistake；　which
  was　responsible　for　all　this　misery；　was　committed　when　our
  scientists　began　to　create　a　new　world　of　steel　and　iron　and
  chemistry　and　electricity　and　forgot　that　the　human　mind　is
  slower　than　the　proverbial　turtle；　is　lazier　than　the　well…known
  sloth；　and　marches　from　one　hundred　to　three　hundred　years
  behind　the　small　group　of　courageous　leaders。
  A　Zulu　in　a　frock　coat　is　still　a　Zulu。　A　dog　trained　to　ride
  a　bicycle　and　smoke　a　pipe　is　still　a　dog。　And　a　human　being
  with　the　mind　of　a　sixteenth　century　tradesman　driving　a　1921
  Rolls…Royce　is　still　a　human　being　with　the　mind　of　a　sixteenth
  century　tradesman。
  If　you　do　not　understand　this　at　first；　read　it　again。　It
  will　become　clearer　to　you　in　a　moment　and　it　will　explain
  many　things　that　have　happened　these　last　six　years。
  Perhaps　I　may　give　you　another；　more　familiar；　example；
  to　show　you　what　I　mean。　In　the　movie　theatres；　jokes　and
  funny　remarks　are　often　thrown　upon　the　screen。　Watch　the
  audience　the　next　time　you　have　a　chance。　A　few　people　seem
  almost　to　inhale　the　words。　It　takes　them　but　a　second　to　read
  the　lines。　Others　are　a　bit　slower。　Still　others　take　from
  twenty　to　thirty　seconds。　Finally　those　men　and　women　who
  do　not　read　any　more　than　they　can　help；　get　the　point　when
  the　brighter　ones　among　the　audience　have　already　begun　to
  decipher　the　next　cut…in。　It　is　not　different　in　human　life；
  as　I　shall　now　show　you。
  In　a　former　chapter　I　have　told　you　how　the　idea　of　the
  Roman　Empire　continued　to　live　for　a　thousand　years　after
  the　death　of　the　last　Roman　Emperor。　It　caused　the　establishment
  of　a　large　number　of　‘‘imitation　empires。''　It　gave　the
  Bishops　of　Rome　a　chance　to　make　themselves　the　head　of　the
  entire　church；　because　they　represented　the　idea　of　Roman
  world…supremacy。　It　drove　a　number　of　perfectly　harmless
  barbarian　chieftains　into　a　career　of　crime　and　endless　warfare
  because　they　were　for　ever　under　the　spell　of　this　magic
  word　‘‘Rome。''　All　these　people；　Popes；　Emperors　and　plain
  fighting　men　were　not　very　different　from　you　or　me。　But
  they　lived　in　a　world　where　the　Roman　tradition　was　a　vital
  issue　something　livingsomething　which　was　remembered
  clearly　both　by　the　father　and　the　son　and　the　grandson。　And
  so　they　struggled　and　sacrificed　themselves　for　a　cause　which
  to…day　would　not　find　a　dozen　recruits。
  In　still　another　chapter　I　have　told　you　how　the　great　religious
  wars　took　place　more　than　a　century　after　the　first　open
  act　of　the　Reformation　and　if　you　will　compare　the　chapter
  on　the　Thirty　Years　War　with　that　on　Inventions；　you　will　see
  that　this　ghastly　butchery　took　place　at　a　time　when　the　first
  clumsy　steam　engines　were　already　puffing　in　the　laboratories
  of　a　number　of　French　and　German　and　English　scientists。
  But　the　world　at　large　took　no　interest　in　these　strange
  contraptions；　and　went　on　with　a　grand　theological　discussion
  which　to…day　causes　yawns；　but　no　anger。
  And　so　it　goes。　A　thousand　years　from　now；　the　historian
  will　use　the　same　words　about　Europe　of　the　out…going　nine…
  teenth　century；　and　he　will　see　how　men　were　engaged　upon
  terrific　nationalistic　struggles　while　the　laboratories　all　around
  them　were　filled　with　serious　folk　who　cared　not　one　whit　for
  politics　as　long　as　they　could　force　nature　to　surrender　a　few
  more　of　her　million　secrets。
  You　will　gradually　begin　to　understand　what　I　am　driving
  at。　The　engineer　and　the　scientist　and　the　chemist；　within　a
  single　generation；　filled　Europe　and　America　and　Asia　with
  their　vast　machines；　with　their　telegraphs；　their　flying　machines；
  their　coal…tar　products。　They　created　a　new　world　in　which
  time　and　space　were　reduced　to　complete　insignificance。　They
  invented　new　products　and　they　made　these　so　cheap　that　almost
  every　one　could　buy　them。　I　have　told　you　all　this　before
  but　it　certainly　will　bear　repeating。
  To　keep　the　ever　increasing　number　of　factories　going；　the
  owners；　who　had　also　become　the　rulers　of　the　land；　needed　raw
  materials　and　coal。　Especially　coal。　Meanwhile　the　mass　of
  the　people　were　still　thinking　in　terms　of　the　sixteenth　and
  seventeenth　centuries　and　clinging　to　the　old　notions　of　the
  state　as　a　dynastic　or　political　organisation。　This　clumsy　mediaeval
  institution　was　then　suddenly　called　upon　to　handle　the
  highly　modern　problems　of　a　mechanical　and　industrial　world。
  It　did　its　best；　according　to　the　rules　of　the　game　which　had
  been　laid　down　centuries　before。　The　different　states　created
  enormous　armies　and　gigantic　navies　which　were　used　for　the
  purpose　of　acquiring　new　possessions　in　distant　lands。　Whereever｛sic｝
  there　was　a　tiny　bit　of　land　left；　there　arose　an　English　or
  a　French　or　a　German　or　a　Russian　colony。　If　the　natives
  objected；　they　were　killed。　In　most　cases　they　did　not　object；
  and　were　allowed　to　live　peacefully；　provided　they　did　not
  interfere　with　the　diamond　mines　or　the　coal　mines　or　the　oil
  mines　or　the　gold　mines　or　the　rubber　plantations；　and　they
  derived　many　benefits　from　the　foreign　occupation。
  Sometimes　it　happened　that　two　states　in　search　of　raw
  materials　wanted　the　same　piece　of　land　at　the　same　time。
  Then　there　was　a　war。　This　occurred　fifteen　years　ago　when
  Russia　and　Japan　fought　for　the　possession　of　certain　terri…
  tories　which　belonged　to　the　Chinese　people。　Such　conflicts；
  however；　were　the　exception。　No　one　really　desired　to　fight。
  Indeed；　the　idea　of　fighting　with　armies　and　battleships　and
  submarines　began　to　seem　absurd　to　the　men　of　the　early　20th
  century。　They　associated　the　idea　of　violence　with　the　long…
  ago　age　of　unlimited　monarchies　and　intriguing　dynasties。
  Every　day　they　read　in　their　papers　of　still　further　inventions；
  of　groups　of　English　and　American　and　German　scientists　who
  were　working　together　in　perfect　friendship　for　the　purpose
  of　an　advance　in　medicine　or　in　astronomy。　They　lived　in　a
  busy　world　of　trade　and　of　commerce　and　factories。　But　only
  a　few　noticed　that　the　development　of　the　state；　（of　the　gigantic
  community　of　people　who　recognise　certain　common　ideals；）
  was　lagging　several　hundred　years　behind。　They　tried　to　warn
  the　others。　But　the　others　were　occupied　with　their　own
  affairs。
  I　have　used　so　many　similes　that　I　must　apologise　for　bringing
  in　one　more。　The　Ship　of　State　（that　old　and　trusted
  expression　which　is　ever　new　and　always　picturesque；）　of　the
  Egyptians　and　the　Greeks　and　the　Romans　and　the　Venetians
  and　the　merchant　adventurers　of　the　seventeenth　century　had
  been　a　sturdy　craft；　constructed　of　well…seasoned　wood；　and
  commanded　by　officers　who　knew　both　their　crew　and　their
  vessel　and　who　understood　the　limitations　of　the　art　of　navigating
  which　had　been　handed　down　to　them　by　their　ancestors。
  Then　came　the　new　age　of　iron　and　steel　and　machinery。
  First　one　part；　then　another　of　the　old　ship　of　state　was
  changed。　Her　dimensions　were　increased。　The　sails　were　discarded
  for　steam。　Better　living　quarters　were　established；　but
  more　people　were　forced　to　go　down　into　the　stoke…hole；　and
  while　the　work　was　safe　and　fairly　remunerative；　they　did　not
  like　it　as　well　as　their　old　and　more　dangerous　job　in　the
  rigging。　Finally；　and　almost　imperceptibly；　the　old　wooden
  square…rigger　had　been　transformed　into　a　modern　ocean　liner。
  But　the　captain　and　the　mates　remained　the　same。　They　were
  appointed　or　elected　in　the　same　way　as　a　hundred　years　before。
  They　were　taught　the　same　system　of　navigation　which
  had　served　the　mariners　of　the　fifteenth　century。　In　their
  cabins　hung　the　same　charts　and　signal　flags　which　had　done
  service　in　the　days　of　Louis　XIV　and　Frederick　the　Great。
  In　short；　they　were　（through　no　fault　of　their　own）　completely
  incompetent。
  The　sea　of　international　politics　is　not　very　broad。　When
  those　Imperial　and　Colonial　liners　began　to　try　and　outrun
  each　other；　accidents　were　bound　to　happen。　They　did　happen。
  You　can　still　see　the　wreckage　if　you　venture　to　pass
  through　that　part　of　the　ocean。
  And　the　moral　of　the　story　is　a　simple　one。　The　world　is
  in　dreadful　need　of　men　who　will　assume　the　new　leadership
  who　will　have　the　courage　of　their　own　visions　and　who　will
  recognise　clearly　that　we　are　only　at　the　beginning　of　the
  voyage；　and　have　to　learn　an　entirely　new　system　of　sea