第 19 节
作者:爱之冰点      更新:2021-02-19 17:04      字数:9321
  overshadowed         Asiatic    commerce;       Lord     Charles    Beresford      says:   〃But
  competition   is   telling   adversely;   the   energy   of   the   British   merchant   is
  being equalled by other nationals。 。 。 The competition of the Chinese and
  the introduction of steam into the country are also combining to produce
  changed conditions in China。〃 But far more ominous is the plaintive note
  he sounds when he says: 〃New industries must be opened up; and I would
  especially   direct   the   attention   of   the   Chambers   of   Commerce   (British)
  to   。  。  。  the  fact  that   the   more    the   native   competes      with   the   British
  manufacturer in certain classes of trade; the more machinery he will need;
  and     the  orders    for  such    machinery      will   come     to  this  country     if  our
  machinery manufacturers are enterprising enough。〃
  The   Orient     is  beginning      to  show   what     an  important     factor    it  will
  become; under Western supervision; in the creation of surplus value。 Even
  before   the   barriers   which   restrain   Western   capital   are   removed;   the   East
  will    be   in  a  fair   way    toward     being    exploited。    An    analysis    of   Lord
  Beresford's   message   to   the   Chambers   of   Commerce   discloses;   first;   that
  the East is beginning to manufacture for itself; and; second; that there is a
  promise  of   keen   competition   in   the West   for  the   privilege   of   selling   the
  required machinery。 The inexorable query arises: WHAT IS THE WEST
  TO DO WHEN IT HAS FURNISHED THIS MACHINERY? And when
  not only the East; but all the now undeveloped countries; confront;  with
  surplus     products     in  their  hands;    the   old   industrial   nations;    capitalistic
  production will have attained its maximum development。
  But before that time must intervene a period which bids one pause for
  breath。   A   new     romance;   like   unto     none   in   all  the   past;   the  economic
  romance;   will   be   born。   For   the   dazzling   prize   of   world…   empire   will   the
  nations of the earth go up in harness。 Powers will rise and fall; and mighty
  coalitions shape and dissolve in the swift whirl of events。 Vassal nations
  and subject territories will be bandied back and forth like so many articles
  of trade。 And with the inevitable displacement of economic centres; it is
  fair to presume that populations will shift to and fro; as they once did from
  the South to the North of England on the rise of the factory towns; or from
  the   Old   World   to   the   New。   Colossal   enterprises   will   be   projected   and
  carried through;  and   combinations of   capital  and   federations   of labor   be
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  effected   on     a   cyclopean   scale。   Concentration   and   organization          will   be
  perfected   in   ways   hitherto undreamed。 The   nation   which   would keep   its
  head     above     the   tide  must     accurately     adjust   supply     to  demand;      and
  eliminate   waste   to   the   last   least   particle。   Standards   of   living   will   most
  likely   descend   for   millions   of   people。   With   the   increase   of   capital;   the
  competition   for   safe   investments;   and   the   consequent   fall   of   the   interest
  rate; the principal which today earns a comfortable income would not then
  support a bare existence。 Saving toward old age would cease among the
  working   classes。 And   as   the   merchant   cities of   Italy  crashed   when   trade
  slipped from their hands on the discovery of the new route to the Indies by
  way of the Cape of Good Hope; so will there come times of trembling for
  such   nations   as   have   failed   to   grasp   the   prize   of   world…empire。   In   that
  given     direction    they   will   have    attained    their   maximum        development;
  before the whole world; in the same direction; has attained its。 There will
  no longer be room  for them。   But   if they  can survive   the shock of   being
  flung out of the world's industrial orbit; a change in direction may then be
  easily effected。 That the decadent and barbarous peoples will be crushed is
  a fair presumption; likewise that the stronger breeds will survive; entering
  upon the transition stage to which all the world must ultimately come。
  This change of direction must be either toward industrial oligarchies or
  socialism。   Either   the   functions   of   private   corporations   will   increase   till
  they absorb the central government; or the functions of government will
  increase till it absorbs the corporations。 Much may be said on the chance
  of the oligarchy。 Should an old manufacturing nation lose its foreign trade;
  it is safe to predict that a strong effort would be made to build a socialistic
  government;   but   it   does   not   follow   that   this   effort   would   be   successful。
  With the moneyed class controlling the State and its revenues and all the
  means of subsistence; and guarding its own interests with jealous care; it is
  not at all impossible that a strong curb could be put upon the masses till
  the crisis   were   past。   It   has   been   done before。 There   is   no   reason   why  it
  should      not  be   done    again。    At   the   close   of   the  last   century;    such    a
  movement   was   crushed   by   its   own   folly   and   immaturity。   In   1871   the
  soldiers   of   the   economic   rulers   stamped   out;   root   and   branch;   a   whole
  generation of militant socialists。
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  Once   the   crisis   were   past;   the   ruling   class;   still   holding   the   curb   in
  order to make itself more secure; would proceed to readjust things and to
  balance   consumption   with   production。   Having   a   monopoly   of   the   safe
  investments; the great masses of unremunerative capital would be directed;
  not    to   the   production      of   more    surplus     value;    but   to  the   making      of
  permanent   improvements;   which   would   give   employment   to   the   people;
  and   make   them   content   with   the   new   order   of   things。   Highways;   parks;
  public   buildings;   monuments;   could   be   builded;   nor   would   it   be   out   of
  place   to   give   better   factories   and   homes   to   the   workers。   Such   in   itself
  would be socialistic; save that it would be done by the oligarchs; a class
  apart。 With the interest rate down to zero; and no field for the investment
  of   sporadic   capital;   savings   among   the   people   would   utterly   cease;   and
  old…age   pensions   be   granted   as   a   matter   of   course。   It   is   also   a   logical
  necessity      of  such    a  system     that;   when     the  population      began     to  press
  against the means of subsistence; (expansion being impossible); the birth
  rate    of   the  lower     classes    would     be   lessened。     Whether      by   their   own
  initiative; or   by  the interference  of  the  rulers;  it   would have  to   be   done;
  and   it   would   be   done。   In   other   words;   the   oligarchy   would   mean   the
  capitalization of labor and the enslavement of the whole population。 But it
  would be a fairer; juster form of slavery than any the world has yet seen。
  The   per   capita   wage   and   consumption   would   be   increased;   and;   with   a
  stringent control of the birth rate; there is no reason why such a country
  should not be so ruled through many generations。
  On     the   other    hand;    as   the   capitalistic    exploitation      of   the   planet
  approaches   its   maximum;   and   countries   are   crowded   out   of   the   field   of
  foreign exchanges; there is a large likelihood that their change in direction
  will   be   toward   socialism。   Were   the   theory   of   collective   ownership   and
  operation   then   to   arise   for   the   first   time;   such   a   movement   would   stand
  small     chance     of   success。    But    such    is  not   the   case。   The     doctrine    of
  socialism has flourished and grown throughout the nineteenth century; its
  tenets have been preached wherever the interests of labor and capital have
  clashed; and it has received exemplification time and again by the State's
  assumption        of   functions      which     had    always      belonged      solely    to   the
  individual。
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  When capitalistic production has attained its maximum development;
  it must confront a